The estimated Tesla international electrical automotive order backlog improved throughout the first half of July, rebounding from a report low degree on the finish of June.
Based on Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike / Twitter), a useful supply for Tesla stats and forecasts, the estimated international order backlog as of July 16, 2023, was roughly 60,000 models. That is some 11,000 (or 22 %) greater than about two weeks in the past.
The numbers are based mostly on fastidiously tracked Tesla-related stats (manufacturing quantity, common wait occasions for every mannequin/trim), as proven within the connected tweet.
Such quantity corresponds to about 18 days of producing capability (up by in the future in a matter of roughly two weeks), in response to the report.
That is an attention-grabbing end result, as a result of there was no important worth discount, like in January or April. There have been some noticeable rebates on new vehicles in current stock although.
We additionally surprise how the introduced plant upgrades (scheduled for the third quarter) will have an effect on provide and the general steadiness between provide and demand, which is the first issue behind the estimated order backlog.
A decrease provide in Q3, and a brand new “refreshed Mannequin 3” provide (greater demand associated to a brand new product), doubtlessly may enhance the order backlog fairly noticeably later this yr (Q3/This fall).
For reference, listed below are the numbers for earlier intervals (wait occasions):
- July 16, 2023: 60,000 (18 days)
- June 30, 2023: 49,000 (17 days)
- June 19, 2023: 59,000 (18 days)
- Could 31, 2023: 75,000 (22 days)
- Could 16, 2023: 83,000 (23 days)
- April 30, 2023: 68,000 (21 days)
- April 15, 2023: 72,000 (22 days)
- March 31, 2023: 102,000 (28 days)
- March 16, 2023: 103,000 (29 days)
- February 28, 2023: 106,000 (30 days)
- February 15, 2023: 106,000 (30 days)
- January 31, 2023: 87,000 (26 days)
- January 15, 2023: 107,000 (30 days)
- December 31, 2022: 74,000 (23 days)
- December 8, 2022: 163,000 (40 days)
- November 30, 2022: 190,000 (44 days)
- October: 31, 2022: 285,000
- September 30, 2022: 299,000
- August 31, 2022: 385,000
- March-July, 2022: round 470,000
- January-February, 2022: lower than 400,000
By way of explicit markets, the steadiness between provide and demand stays marked “purple” (thought-about too low) for all main markets (United States, Europe, and China).
Some of the attention-grabbing issues is that within the US, the estimated order backlog elevated in about two weeks from over 7,000 to over 17,000, which represents about 16 days of provide (up by 5 days).
The scenario in Europe and China was comparatively secure.
Estimated order backlog (change in about two weeks):
- United States: 17,378 (16 days) – elevated by 5 days
- Canada: 888 (16 days) – no change
- Europe: 14,373 (21 days) – decreased by 1 day
- China: 14,423 (15 days) – decreased by 1 day
- different: 12,760 (38 days) – decreased by 2 days
- Whole: 59,822 (18 days) – elevated by 1 day