Estimated Tesla Order Backlog Hits New Low: 59,000 On Jun 19, 2023

The estimated Tesla world electrical automotive order backlog decreased in June, reaching the bottom degree to this point, which means that the producer may quickly apply further value cuts to take care of the stability between provide and demand.

In line with Troy Teslike, a useful supply for Tesla stats and forecasts, the estimated world order backlog as of June 19, 2023, was roughly 59,000 items. That is some 16,000 (or 21 %) lower than on the finish of Might.

The numbers are primarily based on fastidiously tracked Tesla-related stats (manufacturing quantity, common wait instances for every mannequin/trim), as proven within the hooked up tweet.

The 59,000 items correspond to about 18 days of producing capability (down by 4 days in a matter of over two weeks), in keeping with the report.

If the estimates are right, evidently the elevated manufacturing fee (it was a file excessive in Q2 2023), mixed with elevated gross sales (partially by way of promotions utilized to present stock) translated into a discount of wait instances and general order backlog.

We do not know the numbers for the tip of June (these should not but out there within the open model of the report), however Tesla is perhaps prepared to cut back costs once more in July or August. It could not be shocking to us, as a result of earlier this yr, there have been value reductions in January and April when the producer additionally was attempting to spice up gross sales in accordance with elevated manufacturing.

For reference, listed here are the numbers for earlier intervals (wait instances):

  • June 19, 2023: 59,000 (18 days)
  • Might 31, 2023: 75,000 (22 days)
  • Might 16, 2023: 83,000 (23 days)
  • April 30, 2023: 68,000 (21 days)
  • April 15, 2023: 72,000 (22 days)
  • March 31, 2023: 102,000 (28 days)
  • March 16, 2023: 103,000 (29 days)
  • February 28, 2023: 106,000 (30 days)
  • February 15, 2023: 106,000 (30 days)
  • January 31, 2023: 87,000 (26 days)
  • January 15, 2023: 107,000 (30 days)
  • December 31, 2022: 74,000 (23 days)
  • December 8, 2022: 163,000 (40 days)
  • November 30, 2022: 190,000 (44 days)
  • October: 31, 2022: 285,000
  • September 30, 2022: 299,000
  • August 31, 2022: 385,000
  • March-July, 2022: round 470,000
  • January-February, 2022: lower than 400,000
 

When it comes to explicit markets, the stability between provide and demand stays marked “pink” (too brief) for all main markets (United States, Europe, and China).

Within the US particularly, the estimated order backlog decreased in over two weeks from virtually 35,000 to over 18,000, which represents about 16 days of provide (down by eight days). The scenario in Europe and China was comparatively secure.

Estimated order backlog (change in about two weeks):

  • United States: 18,334 (16 days) – decreased by 8 days
  • Canada: 1,480 (21 days) – decreased by 1 day
  • Europe: 15,076 (20 days) – enhance by 1 day
  • China: 13,081 (15 days) – no change
  • different: 11,512 (44 days) – decreased by 6 days
  • Whole: 59,483 (18 days) – decreased by 4 day
 


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